Report on Future Perspectives and on Opportunities and Risks

Future Perspectives

Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook1



Growth 2017


Growth forecast 2018

2017 figures restated


Real growth of gross domestic product, source: IHS Markit


Including about 50 countries defined by IHS Markit as Emerging Markets in line with the World Bank.

As of October 2018






European Union





of which Germany





United States





Emerging Markets2





We continue to expect that the global economy in 2018 will grow at a similar pace as in the previous year. However, the risks for the world economy have increased compared with the previous year, especially due to the continuing conflicts over trade policy and the currency risks in a number of emerging countries. We continue to expect stronger growth in the United States than in the prior year, while growth in Europe will likely be slower. The increase in economic output in the Emerging Markets will likely match the pace of the prior year overall, while for China we continue to anticipate strong growth at a slightly slower rate than in the prior year.

Economic Outlook for the Segments1



Growth 2017


Growth forecast 2018

2017 figures restated


Bayer’s estimate, except pharmaceuticals; source for pharmaceuticals market: IQVIA MIDAS; IQVIA Market Prognosis (September 2018); all rights reserved; currency-adjusted.

As of October 2018

Pharmaceuticals market





Consumer health market





Seed and crop protection market





Animal health market





Corporate Outlook

We confirm the outlook for the Bayer Group that was updated in the second quarter of 2018 to reflect the acquisition, although the forecasts for Consumer Health and Animal Health are now becoming increasingly ambitious.

Forecast for Key Financial Data of the Group for 2018



Closing rates on September 30, 2018




Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects



More than €39 billion


Increase by a mid-single-digit percentage1

Development of EBITDA before special items


Increase by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage


Increase by a high-single-digit percentage

Development of core earnings per share


€5.70 – €5.90


Decrease by a high-single-digit percentage

Compare to Last Year